Opinion: Winners, losers in Renesas-NEC deal

As expected, Japan's Renesas Technology Corp. and NEC Electronics Inc. will merge in a blockbuster deal.
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The two companies provided few details about the merger, but many analysts believe that this deal makes little sense. There are too many overlapping products and the integration issues will be a nightmare.

If the Renesas-NEC merger goes through, here's the winners and losers in my opinion:

Winners
1. Microcontroller (MCU) rivals to Renesas and NEC Electronics. The proposed merger of Renesas and NEC Electronics will create a lot of confusion in the MCU market. Both companies have MCUs, which are overlapping. Renesas just rolled out the RX, a MCU line that is supposed to unify its already confusing MCU lineup.
Customers will worry about the fates of the various lines from Renesas and NEC. The beneficiaries: MCU rivals Atmel, Cypress, Freescale, Microchip, TI, among others.

2. Renesas' management. I suspect the combined Renesas-NEC Electronics company will be led by Renesas' management. Renesas has a bigger share of the MCU space, which is critical for the future of the company. MCUs are a good business.

3. Renesas' products. I believe Renesas' products will survive in the long run. NEC's products? It's less clear. Not sure what will happen to NEC's MCUs, mobile devices and ASICs.

4. NEC Corp. For years, parent company NEC has been looking for ways to jettison its loss-ridden semiconductor unit. In 2002, it spun-out the unit. Now, it can wash its hands clean by getting rid of the poor performing group.

5. IBM's ''fab club.'' Renesas' partner in process technology is Panasonic. The companies recently announced a 32-nm process. NEC Electronics recently joined IBM's ''fab club.'' NEC and Toshiba Corp. are also co-developing processes.
There is no way that the combined Renesas-NEC Electronics company can pursue both strategies. Over time, I expect the combined company to scrap the Panasonic alliance and go with IBM's ''fab club.'' IBM's group has more resources and R&D might. In all, NEC is the winner here.

Losers

1. Customers. No telling what will happen to the products from NEC Electronics and Renesas. There are too many overlapping products. Many will get phased out. A mess in the making.

2. Employees from NEC Electronics and Renesas. Look out for a staggering amount of layoffs in the future. The integration issues for the combined entity will be enormous.

3. NEC Electronics' management. I believe Renesas' management will ultimately run the combined company.

4. Emma. Emma is NEC's device for mobiles. I'm speculating that NEC Electronics' product for handsets and handhelds could get dumped. Renesas also sells a similar chip line, which is use by handset makers for NTT's mobile network.

5. Fab tool suppliers. The combined Renesas-NEC Electronics company means one less chip maker to sell tools. Who will take the hit? Applied, ASML, Canon, Nikon, Novellus, TEL and others. Just about everyone.

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BY Mark LaPedus
Source:EE Times

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